Threat Assessment for the 2024 DNC

Threat Assessment for the 2024 DNC

By TorchStone Senior Analyst, Bob Huettner

The Democratic National Convention (DNC) will be held at the United Center, McCormick Place, and other venues throughout Chicago from August 19-22. Between 5,000 and 7,000 delegates and alternate delegates are expected to attend, with a total of 50,000 people anticipated at the convention. Chicago has also introduced extra public transportation options to accommodate the influx.

Protests are expected to cause significant disruptions in parts of the city and may result in clashes with police. Although tight security is typically enforced at national party conventions in the U.S., authorities are likely to increase security measures in Chicago beyond usual levels. This heightened security response is driven by two factors: the anticipated pro-Palestinian and other protests during the convention, and the recent assassination attempt on former President and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.

History

Chicago has hosted the DNC 11 times since 1864. The convention of 1968 looms large in the collective memory because there were a number of divisive issues dividing the public, and in particular, the Democratic Party. Several groups such as the Students for a Democratic Society and the Youth International Movement, combined with numerous other factions to protest the DNC. Live television broadcasted several violent disturbances, giving the Democratic Party a proverbial black eye, which was partly blamed for their loss in the general election.

There are several similarities between the 1968 convention and the 2024 convention, including the sitting president not running for reelection and delegates pledged to the incumbent being passed to the Vice President, ongoing global conflict, a division within the U.S. population over domestic and international policies, resurgent international foes, and a vocal, mobilized youth movement heavily influenced by socialist/communist ideology.

Protest Threat

The city of Chicago has planned for demonstrations during the DNC. Several permits have been issued to various groups, but they are kept to the periphery, so they won’t interfere with the convention. The largest coalition protest group “March on the DNC” has applied for and received a permit to protest. However, they didn’t secure the route (graphic below) they wanted or permission to set up a stage.  It should be noted that this group has said it does not feel bound to the restrictions imposed by the city, “We will be marching with or without a permit.”

On August 13, 2024, U.S. District Judge Andrea Wood ruled against a demand by the demonstrators for a larger protest route that would take them closer to Chicago’s United Center arena. The organizers responded publicly stating that the Democratic party and officials  “underestimate our rage, our tenacity, and our steadfast commitment to the precious life of every Palestinian person enduring this horrific genocide We’re fighting back.”

Additionally, on August 12, 2024, the organizers posted that they are united by the St. Paul Principles, which provide unity of effort, diversity of tactics, and prevent public airing of internal disagreements. It also states that they will not cooperate in any way, shape, or form with authorities.

 

In early July, the organizers made it clear in their mission statement that, “We may not be able to get Biden to change course, but with enough angry people outside the convention center we can certainly make the DNC a complete political disaster for his campaign.” Granted, this was published in early July, but their goals have not changed despite POTUS deciding not to run for re-election. VPOTUS, the presumptive nominee, has been wavering on her stance towards the Gaza conflict and has alienated many left-wing organizations. Her more “moderate” stances are seen as a betrayal of the Progressive Left’s goals and ideology. Additionally, these protesters see a majority of the Democratic party as members of the “establishment” who are no different than the much-despised Republicans, conservatives, and capitalists.

Organizers report that between 125 and 150 groups are participating, with some protests expected to draw thousands of participants. Notably, “March on the DNC,” an umbrella organization representing dozens of pro-Palestinian groups from across the U.S., has been preparing for the convention for months. They have scheduled two main marches from Union Park (1/2 mile NE of the United Center) one at 12 pm on August 19 and another at 5 pm on August 22.

The following groups have been identified as planning, participating in, or supporting demonstrations during the DNC:

AFSC
Mission: Interfaith organization committed to social justice.
Social: @afsc_org

AMP-Chicago
Mission: Chicago Chapter of American Muslims for Palestine.
Social: @AMPChicago
Website: AMP Chicago

Anakbayan Chicago
Mission: Fighting in the National Democratic Movement for the liberation of the Filipino people.
Social: @Anakbayan_Chi

Anti-War Committee Chicago
Mission: Anti-imperialist, anti-war movement.
Social: @AntiWarChicago

BAYAN USA
Mission: Alliance of 30 progressive and anti-imperialist Filipino organizations across the U.S.
Social: @BAYAN_USA

BLMChicago
Mission: Opposing police violence against minority populations.
Social: @BLMChi

Chicago Torture Justice Center
Mission: Healing communities from police violence.
Social: @chitorture

Climate Defiance
Mission: Youth-led group using direct action to resist fossil fuels. Advocates for pro-Palestine/anti-Israeli stance and is challenging the established Democratic party.
Website: ClimateDefiance.org

CODEPINK
Mission: Feminist grassroots organization working for peace, human rights, and an end to U.S. wars & militarism.
Social: @codepink

Dissenters
Mission: Youth movement opposing militarism.
Social: @wearedissenters

DSA
Mission: The largest and fastest growing socialist organization in the USA.
Social: @DemSocialists
Student Branch: YDSA

FEDECMI
Mission: Supporting migrants from Michoacan, Mexico, in Illinois.
Social: @FEDECMI

Freedom Road Socialist Organization – Chicago
Mission: An alliance of multi-national socialist liberation movements.
Social: @frso_chicago

International League of Peoples’ Struggle
Mission: A global socialist movement.
Social: @ILPS_Official

JVP Chicago
Mission: Jewish Voice for Peace’s Chicago chapter.
Social: @JVPChicago
National Chapter: @jvplive

March on the DNC
Mission: Coalition of organizations planning to bring demands to the Democratic National Convention 2024 in Chicago.
Website: marchondnc2024.org

National Alliance Against Racist & Political Repression
Mission: Holding police accountable for acts of violence.
Social: @NAARPR

National SDS
Mission: A radical, multi-issue organization advocating progressive change on campuses.
Social: @newSDS
Website: National SDS

SAFE UMich
Mission: Palestinian solidarity group and SJP chapter at the University of Michigan-Ann Arbor.
Social: @SAFEumich
Website: SAFE UMich

SDS at UIC
Mission: UIC Chapter of Students for a Democratic Society. Weekly meetings on Wednesdays at 5:30pm.
Social: @sdsatuic

SJP Chicago
Mission: Advancing the liberation of Palestine through student-led activism.
Social: @sjpchi

Southsiders Organized for Unity and Liberation (SOUL)
Mission: Fighting for racial & economic justice on Chicago’s South Side and South Suburbs.
Social: @SOULInChicago

The Arab American Action Network
Mission: Improving the social, economic, and political conditions of Arab immigrants and Arab Americans in the Chicago area.
Social: @aaanmarkaz

The Chicago Alliance
Mission: Advocating for democratic civilian control of Chicago Police.
Social: @CAARPRNow

Únete La Villita
Mission: Promoting affordable housing and equitable development in La Villita, Chicago.
Social: @UneteLaVillita

US Palestinian Community Network (USPCN)
Mission: Uniting Palestinian communities in the U.S.
Social: @uspcn

Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures

The protesters are likely to use two general approaches in their efforts to disrupt the convention: external and internal.

External

The external protests are the obvious mass gathering of marchers. These protests will disrupt travel to and from the convention center by blocking traffic and forcing the use of alternate routes. They may also block the entrances and exits from the hotels where the delegates are staying, causing the delegates to be delayed or possibly miss important events. The organizers, as stated earlier, are expecting from tens of thousands up to 100,000 protesters. Large gatherings encourage “herd mentality” and increase the likelihood of civil unrest. Large crowds also provide cover for groups such as Black Bloc anarchists to hide and then lash out to create mayhem.

Law enforcement, even though it is being augmented, will be stretched to cover very large protests. Protests are scheduled for each day of the convention, with a focus on the first and last days, likely wearing down people’s patience and sparking tempers, which could lead to confrontation. The language adopted by the organizers is indicative that they are taking an adversarial stance toward law enforcement, city planners, and the Democratic party. They have lined up legal counsel, established bail funds, and have identified and filled critical positions to include protest marshals, spokesmen, “reporters”, logisticians, guides, ‘medics”, and other support personnel identified. They are clearly prepared for confrontation, even if they say they are “peaceful.”

While the protests are scheduled for daylight hours, this has not, and will not, prevent them from holding impromptu gatherings at night. There is historical precedence for this type of action, including the 1968 DNC. Actions at night are more susceptible to violence because of the anonymity provided by the dark.

Internal

The other type of protest is internal, where the protesters will gain access to the convention floor through legitimate means. Most often, these disruptions take the form of heckling a given speaker or taking the stage to stop a given speech. VPOTUS has had several of her speeches interrupted by hecklers while on the campaign trail in the past two weeks. She is now requiring photo identification to gain entry to her rallies. The protesters have mastered the dilemma crisis form of protest over the past few years. There is a good probability that they will at least attempt to execute such an action at least once during the DNC. These interruptions have been swiftly dealt with by the staff of VPOTUS, escorting them out of the venue quickly.

The internal disruption could also encourage other dissenting members of the audience to get involved. There are those who support the cause the protesters are championing; those who may disagree with them but support their right to protest; those who disagree with the protesters, and those who believe that such an action is detrimental to the Party and decorum. This causes friction among members of the audience and can cause the disruption to continue after the protesters have been removed.

According to the rhetoric of the groups listed above, they have adopted a “you are with us or against us” attitude, and any form of dissent is considered being a “sellout to the establishment.” Individuals and groups, looking to moderate a disagreement or enforce decorum, may be considered a potential target by the protesters, even if they support the base cause of the protest.

Assessment

Given the current atmospherics surrounding this election, the probability that a confrontation between the protesters and law enforcement, convention organizers, convention attendees, counter-protesters and the general public is high. The probability that specific organizations attending the convention being targeted by protesters is moderate, it is more likely that they will be caught up in events as collateral damage.