2024 Election Unrest Guide: Learning Lessons and Avoiding a Repeat of 2020
By TorchStone Senior Analyst, Ben West
The last U.S. presidential election resulted in historically high levels of social unrest, which culminated in the violent attempt on January 6, 2021, to disrupt the U.S. Congress’ normally mundane certification of the election results.
With the 2024 election just three weeks away, it is important to anticipate how and where this year’s election may also cause destabilizing social unrest.
As Mark Twain famously quipped, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” There are multiple indicators that the 2024 election could generate as much social unrest as the 2020 election. However, the 2020 post-election debacle has also provided numerous lessons that can help avoid a repeat. Unrest is almost guaranteed over the next three months, but that does not mean it will be as disruptive and destructive as it was in 2021.
It is important to contrast the context of the 2020 and 2024 elections: In 2020, the United States and the rest of the world were still in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic that had led to health, economic, and social crises. Additionally, the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement and other social justice protest campaigns proliferated following the death of George Floyd. Even without the election, 2020 was a year that featured an exceptional level of social unrest.
Going into the 2024 elections, the pro-Palestine protest campaign has been fueling large demonstrations in the United States and around the world. While pro-Palestine protests were highly disruptive on university campuses earlier in the spring, they have been more subdued in recent months. They have and will continue to contribute to social unrest during this election cycle, but they are very unlikely to reach the same scale that BLM and COVID-19 protests did in 2020.
Elections Continue to Attract Terrorist Actors
However, the current round of conflict involving Israel, Palestine, and Lebanon has increased the terrorist threat against elections. On October 8, the U.S. Justice Department announced the arrest of an Afghan national in Oklahoma who was plotting to attack Americans on election day on behalf of the Islamic State.
Just days before the arrest, the Department of Homeland Security warned of “violent extremist responses to domestic sociopolitical developments” surrounding the 2024 election cycle. DHS cited the ongoing Isarel-Hamas conflict as a major international driver of attacks—as well as ongoing threats from the Islamic State, al-Qaeda, and their supporters around the world.
Social Unrest Likely Regardless of Outcome
According to the Election 2020 Political Violence Data and Trends report, the contentious swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina attracted disproportionately more protest incidents based on their population during the 2020 election cycle. That trend appears to still be in place. In 2020, major city centers experienced disruptive social unrest and protesters supporting both candidates rallied outside the following locations:
- Ballot Counting Centers in Especially Contested Counties
- Residences of Local, State, and Federal Officials Involved in the Election Process
- State Capitol Buildings and Government Offices
- Federal Government Buildings in Washington, D.C., Specifically the White House and U.S. Capitol
These offices and residences are likely to also become targets during the 2024 election cycle.
Key Dates in the 2024 Election Cycle That Could Attract Social Unrest
The National Archives maintains a schedule of deadlines leading up to the U.S. Congress counting and certifying the electoral votes on January 6, 2025. This is the final step before the next president is sworn in at 12 pm on January 20. While most of the steps on these dates between election day and inauguration day have historically been a mundane procedure, the 2020 election showed that each step in this process across all 50 states can provide an opportunity for opposing sides to pressure offices and individuals involved in the process.
The dates below provide a guideline for when we might expect to see social unrest and where. In 2020, contentious demonstrations spiked during key counting and certification dates outlined below. Geographically, the general protest trend in 2020 started at a local level (during the ballot counting phase), before moving to state capitols and, finally, the U.S. Capitol building as the vote certification process progressed.
- Nov 5 – Election Day
- Nov 26 – Donald Trump scheduled to be sentenced in Manhattan Criminal Court on prior hush money conviction.
- Dec 3 – Georgia Runoff Election (held in case no candidate receives a majority of the vote on Nov 5)
- Dec 7 – Louisiana runoff election (held in case no candidate receives a majority of the vote on Nov 5)
- Dec 11 – Deadline for states to issue Certificates of Ascertainment
- Dec 17 – Electors vote in their states
- Dec 25 – Electoral votes must arrive at the U.S. Senate no later than the 4th Wednesday of December.
- Jan 3 – The new congress convenes for the first time and the National Archivist transfers certificates.
- Jan 6 – Congress certifies presidential election results
- Jan 20 – Inauguration Day
Key Locations to Watch for Social Unrest
Like 2020, the outcome of the 2024 election will focus heavily on the results in seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In 2020, major cities in those states experienced heightened attention. In the initial days following the November 5 election, any protest activity is likely to focus on local ballot counting centers.
Looking ahead to the 2024 election, key swing counties in those swing states will attract national attention and be focal points of activists on both sides watching the election.
- Maricopa County (Phoenix), Arizona
- Cobb County (Atlanta suburb), Georgia
- Wayne County (Detroit), Michigan
- Clark County (Las Vegas), Nevada
- Wake County (Raleigh), North Carolina
- Erie County (Erie), Pennsylvania
- Waukesha County (Milwaukee suburb), Wisconsin
In addition to these key counties, the Manhattan Criminal Court in lower Manhattan, New York City, will likely attract protesters in support of and opposed to Donald Trump on the days surrounding his hush money conviction sentencing on November 26. Additionally, the ongoing federal investigation into Mr. Trump’s involvement in the effort to overturn the 2020 election will continue to be a focal point for supporters and opponents of the former president. There are currently no major dates associated with the process that might attract unrest.
Protests can occur anywhere, and developments on election day and the days following will determine specific conditions, but they are more likely in the swing states where the outcome is less predictable and susceptible to accusations of irregularities. A brief sample of protests in the days immediately following the November 4 elections in 2020 demonstrates how protesters were initially drawn to the more contentious voting districts:
- Atlanta, GA – Around 100 protesters chanted “Stop the Cheat” outside the State Farm Arena on November 6 while poll workers were counting ballots. Protests continued in Atlanta, mostly outside the Georgia State Capitol, leading up to U.S. Senate seat run-off elections later in November.
- Detroit, MI – Hundreds of protesters (some armed) rallied outside the ballot counting room at the TCF center on November 6 complaining of voter fraud.
- Philadelphia, PA – Opposing protest groups gathered outside the Pennsylvania Convention Center, where poll workers were counting ballots on November 6.
- Las Vegas, NV – Around 100 people displayed signs reading, “Stop the Steal” outside the Clark County Election Department on November 7.
- Phoenix, AZ – Hundreds of protesters rallied outside the Maricopa County Elections Department for multiple consecutive days alleging that the Democratic party had stolen the election.
After then-Democratic candidate, Joe Biden was declared the unofficial winner, many Trump supporters continued claims of voter irregularities, citing the record number of mail-in ballots due to the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, illegal voters, and corruption of voting machines, just to name a few grievances. In late November and December, as the election certification process progressed to state capitols and state-level officials, so did protest targets and tactics.
- Detroit, MI – Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson reported that protesters gathered outside her home calling on her to overturn the state’s election results in early December.
- Indianapolis, IN – Members of the far-right group, Proud Boys, joined protesters at the statehouse on Dec 12 alleging that the election was stolen.
- Sacramento, CA – Opposing protest groups confronted each other repeatedly in the weeks following the 2020 election at the California State Capitol in Sacramento.
- Washington, D.C. – Starting in mid-November, President Trump’s re-election campaign started organizing a series of protests dubbed the “Million MAGA March” that culminated in the violent Jan 6 attempt to stop the certification of the election at the U.S. Capitol Building.
History Unlikely to Repeat Itself
While electoral cycle social unrest is likely to contribute to the general threat environment in the United States over the next three months, a repeat of the January 6 breach at the U.S. Capitol is not predetermined—and in our assessment is unlikely.
The January 6, 2021, breach was the confluence of multiple extraordinary circumstances—most notably, an underprepared security response and a unique alliance between disparate groups determined to overturn the election results. Both of those issues have been addressed in the four years since.
First, the U.S. Capitol Police and federal authorities were not prepared for such an unprecedented protest action on Jan 6, 2021. As noted above, congressional certification of the election had been a mundane procedural formality in all previous elections leading up to 2020. History had not prepared the authorities for such a threat. Authorities have approved additional security resources this time around to prevent such a disruption from repeating itself following this election.
Second, the Department of Justice continues to pursue those involved in the January 6 breach. As of January 2024, the DOJ had charged 1,265 and sentenced 749 people for crimes associated with the breach. DOJ efforts continue, with the most recent sentences being handed down on September 19, 2024. The DOJ’s efforts have not only had a chilling effect on those determined to overturn election results, it has also dismantled networks that were instrumental in organizing the January 6 breach in the first place.
While a repeat of January 6 is unlikely, disruptive protests and general social unrest surrounding the 2024 election process remain likely. Companies with personnel and/or assets near the locations outlined above should start planning and communicating contingency plans now in the case of social unrest. Security professionals should also use the election process calendar to anticipate when unrest is most likely and to help assess how local dynamics may contribute to unrest.
TorchStone has developed a playbook that companies and organizations can use to help prepare for civil unrest. Contact us to request your copy of the guide.