Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Preparing for a Global Protest Campaign

Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Preparing for a Global Protest Campaign

By TorchStone Senior Analyst, Ben West

This week’s edition of The Watch explores threats associated with the upcoming week of protests marking the one-year anniversary of the latest chapter in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: TorchStone is tracking 30 planned protests around the world going into the first week of October.

Read Keeping Executives Safe During Protests for more guidance on preparing for and managing civil unrest.

Civil Unrest Over the Coming Week

This coming Monday marks the one-year anniversary of Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attacks against Israel that triggered an Israeli military retaliation that continues today. A series of highly coordinated attacks against Hezbollah commanders across southern Lebanon that culminated with a massive strike that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Sept 27 increased the likelihood of attacks against Israeli and Jewish communities around the world. Israeli military mobilizations indicate that Israel could exploit Hezbollah’s current disarray with ground operations in southern Lebanon to dismantle the Iranian-aligned militant group further. Iran has vowed to avenge Nasrallah’s death, so a military response from Tehran or one of its regional proxies is also possible over the coming weeks.

The anniversary of the ongoing conflict and signs that the conflict could be spreading to include Hezbollah have stimulated pro-Palestine and pro-Israel activist groups around the world into action. The coming week will likely bring elevated protest activity in large and small cities around the world. October 7 falls on a Monday this year, so most protest organizers have planned their protests for October 5, the preceding Saturday, to maximize turnout.

For example, the Palestinian Youth Movement and various related activist groups are mobilizing protests across North America on October 5, ahead of the one-year anniversary of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Hundreds to thousands of individuals are expected to participate in planned protests across major cities like New York, Los Angeles, and Toronto. Protest organizers target central locations such as City Halls or large, downtown public areas and parks.

Of course, not all protest actions are publicly announced. We expect dozens more protest actions around the world to develop over the period of October 4-7. Fridays are the Islamic day of prayer and are often associated with afternoon protests, so spontaneous protest activity could develop over the afternoon of Friday, October 4. Given the frequency and severity of breaking events, spontaneous protests can develop virtually anywhere at any time.

While most protest activity will remain peaceful and orderly, security managers should prepare for significant disruptions and even targeted violence. More radical protesters could spin off from orderly protests to target key locations such as major roads, airports, transit hubs, college campuses, Israeli diplomatic missions, businesses perceived as pro-Israel, religious buildings, and government buildings.

Advance Warnings

Authorities around the world are urging heightened vigilance, especially near Jewish and Muslim sites, due to the potential for protests over the coming week amid rising tensions. Israel’s National Security Council warned about increased threats of attacks against Israelis and Jewish communities on the days surrounding October 7. The Jewish new year, Rosh Hashanah, falls between October 2-4 this year. Gatherings for the celebration around the world create targets for violent individuals angry about the ongoing conflict.

The United States-based Anti-Defamation League issued a general warning on September 16 about the threats of antisemitic harassment and attacks occurring on and around October 7. The statement noted the general decline in university-based protests that occurred across campuses in the spring of 2024. However, the Palestinian Youth Movement is urging campuses worldwide to take action during a “Week of Rage” October 7-11 that could see student activists attempt to resume campus-based protest movements.

While most of the protests that TorchStone is tracking are pro-Palestine and opposed to Israel’s military actions, there are also pro-Israel/pro-Jewish actions planned to commemorate the victims of the October 7, 2023, attacks. In London, for example, there is a counter-protest planned against the Palestine Solidarity Campaign. The presence of counter-protesters increases the likelihood of confrontations and related disturbances.

Understanding Threats, Responding Appropriately

While physical safety is a concern in these protests, getting caught out in a protest also poses a risk to personal and organizational reputations. Individuals unintentionally encountering protesters should maintain a calm, composed, and neutral demeanor, and refrain from confrontations or provocations. Stay mindful of your surroundings and identify possible escape routes in case of escalation or danger. Familiarize yourself with nearby buildings, landmarks, and safe areas. Furthermore, if the situation becomes volatile or unsafe, individuals should immediately seek refuge in nearby buildings or relocate to a secure area until it’s safe to depart, adhering to the guidance provided by law enforcement or security personnel, if they are present. For more guidance on preparing for and managing civil unrest, please read, Keeping Executives Safe During Protests.

When engaging with protest and civil unrest, it is also important to have Situational Understanding as well as Situational Awareness. Every protest is different. Understanding local dynamics, grievances, and how you and your organization fit into those grievances are key to determining a response. Ignoring the threat out of a sense of political correctness risks property damage and even the health of your employees. Conversely, overreacting to a situation could just make it worse, attracting unwanted attention.

Please find a full list of protest actions that TorchStone is aware of as of the end of September. We expect more to develop over the coming week.

October 5

• Atlanta, GA – 1400 at Centennial Olympic Park
• Austin, TX – 1300 at Austin City Hall
• Berlin, Germany – 1400 at Humboldt University
• Cadiz, Spain – 1200 at Plaza Asdrúbal
• Cambridge, MA – 1400 at Cambridge City Hall
• Cleveland, OH – 1500 on Lorain Ave
• Dallas, TX – 1200 on The Grassy Knoll
• Dover, DE – 1200 at Gateway South Shopping Centre
• Houston, TX – 1400 at Houston City Hall
• Indianapolis, IN – 1400 at Lugar Plaza
• London, UK – Whitehall
• Los Angeles, CA – 1400 at Pershing Square
• México City, México – 1500 at Ángel de la Independencia
• Montreal, Canada – Place des Arts
• New York, NY – 1400 in Times Square
• Orlando, FL – 1600 at Orlando City Hall
• Ottawa – 1400 at Parliament Hill
• Paris, France – 1400 at Place de République
• Pau, France – 1500 TBA
• Pittsburgh, PA – TBA
• Providence, RI – TBA
• Rome, Italy – 1400 at Piramide
• San Diego, CA – 1400 at San Diego City Hall
• Seattle, WA – 1400 TBA
• Toronto, Canada – Yonge-Dundas Square
• Tokyo, Japan – TBA
• Washington, DC – 1600 outside the White House

October 6

• Sydney, Australia – 1300 Sydney Town Hall

October 7

• Osaka, Japan – 1830 at Nakanoshima Park Station Square

October 11

• Melbourne, Australia – 1830 Fed Square